The prospects for the development of the domestic photovoltaic industry are difficult to predict


Obviously, price commitments and market quotas are undoubtedly good news for China's PV industry compared to the 46.7 punitive tariffs. Previously, the European market digested about 80% of China's total PV product exports, and lost its competitive advantage in the European market, which also means that China's PV industry will face a more difficult situation.
Even if exports can reach the upper limit this year, according to the estimated 14GW of the European market this year, Chinese companies can only reach about 50% of the European market. After losing the price advantage, the competitiveness in the European market is also greatly reduced. Industry insiders estimate that after the annual quota method is realized, the domestic PV products will account for 40% of the market share in Europe.
The decline in sales in the European market will bring a certain blow to companies, forcing companies to reduce their reliance on the European market, and the demand for emerging markets such as Japan has expanded in recent years. Therefore, many people hope to consume the remaining capacity of photovoltaics through the domestic market and emerging markets such as Japan.
However, from a macro perspective, the world economy is difficult to recover in a short period of time, and global demand has shrunk. It is estimated that in 2013, the total global demand is estimated to be only 35GW, while the total shipments of Chinese PV panel makers are expected to reach 22GW-23GW.
Not playing the price war will weaken the competitiveness of China's PV in emerging markets. Once the old roads of emerging markets such as Japan are repeated by low prices, other countries in emerging markets will follow the United States, the European Union, and India to conduct double-reverse investigations on Chinese PV.
Chinese PV companies with high dependence on the international market are optimistic. Although the domestic market demand has continued to grow in recent years, it is still not enough to make up for the demand gap caused by the sharp decline in the developed markets. The situation of overcapacity will also exist for a long time.
In addition, as of August 8, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has risen for four consecutive days, and the spot exchange rate has broken through the 6.12 mark, marking a record high for two consecutive days. The rising exchange rate of the renminbi has also made photovoltaic exports even more difficult.

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